COMPOSITE OVERVIEW: The project stress index composite represents an equal-weight measure of the seasonally adjusted level of pre-construction projects that have experienced a delayed bid date, have been placed on hold, or have been abandoned in the last 30-days. For the week ending December 16th, 2023, the Index registered 132.3, indicating that weekly stress conditions were 32% above their 2021 average. The Index rose 0.3% for the week resulting in a third consecutive week of multi-year high readings. The Index’s slight increase from the prior week was driven by rising activity in delayed bid date and abandoned projects which more than offset a modest decline in on hold activity. For a third consecutive week the index of abandoned projects registered just below 150. During the first three weeks of December abandoned activity readings averaged 147.8, marking the highest 3-week average in the history of abandoned index readings, exceeding even the shock readings from March 2020 caused by the onset of the COVID pandemic. Trailing behind were on hold and bid date delayed readings which posted 3-week averages of 130.3 and 115.7 respectively.
COMPONENTS MONITOR:
| Delay Bid Date | On Hold | Abandoned |
|---|---|---|
Sector Status Update: Public and private sector project stress results can trend independently of one another in part due to their different funding mechanisms. There have been several notable trends in recent project stress data by sector. Historically the fourth quarter of the calendar year experiences an absolute decline in the level of total delayed, on hold and abandoned projects. As a result, the number of private projects on hold and abandoned at the start of the year has historically matched the count at year end. This December however, there have been nearly twice as many private projects on hold or abandoned as there were in January. Such a feat has happened only once before (2020) and in that case only among abandoned projects.
The Project Stress Index (PSI) monitors the level of U.S. construction projects, excluding single family residential, that have experienced a bid date delay, have been placed on hold, or have been abandoned over the last 30 days. Each component has been indexed against the average of their weekly values recorded during 2021. The independent tracking of each status type gives unique insights into the timing, direction, and amplitude of market changes.
Additional information about the PSI, including detailed data about the individual readings for delayed, on hold, and abandoned projects can be found here.