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COMPOSITE OVERVIEW:
For the week ending March 9th, 2024, the Project Stress Index composite fell 1.6% to close at 129.3. Results from the previous week were revised slightly higher, from 131.1 to 131.4, widening this week’s decline. For only the fifth time since August 2023 all three components of the Index simultaneously declined. The declines were led by a 2.3% fall in Delayed Bid activity and followed by smaller declines of 0.8% and 1.8% for On Hold and Abandoned activity, respectively. For the first time since late July 2023, the Index reported a four-week period in which it experienced only modest weekly fluctuations in results. However, this recent period of tranquility conceals the significant divergence between 2024’s historically high Abandoned project activity readings and the latest six consecutive weeks of falling Delayed Bid readings. For reference, this week’s Delayed Bid reading was less than 5% above the average Delayed Bid reading of 2021.
COMPONENTS MONITOR:
| Delay Bid Date | On Hold | Abandoned |
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(Week-on-week changes of less than 0.25% are indicated as unchanged)
Sector Status Update:
Public and private sector project stress results can and do, at times, trend independently of one another in part due to their different funding mechanisms. In the public sector, the data indicate minimal week-to-week volatility; however, when current weekly results are compared to results from the same week one year ago significant differences appear. Year-on-year results indicate an 8% decline in Delayed Bid activity but a 15% and 52% increase for On Hold and Abandoned projects, respectively. Similar to the public sector, this week’s private sector Delayed Bid reading was 5% below that from the same week a year ago. Unfortunately, comparable year-ago measures of On Hold and Abandoned activity readings are far less encouraging, with activity up 110% and 3%, respectively. It should be noted that the modest single-digit increase in year-on-year Abandoned activity is only because of a surge of Abandoned projects during the early months of 2023.
About the Project Stress Index
The Project Stress Index (PSI) monitors the level of U.S. construction projects, excluding single family residential, that have experienced a bid date delay, have been placed on hold, or have been abandoned over the last 30 days. Each component has been indexed against the average of their weekly values recorded during 2021. The independent tracking of each status type gives unique insights into the timing, direction, and amplitude of market changes.
Additional information about the PSI, including detailed data about the individual readings for delayed, on hold, and abandoned projects can be found here.
