Data for the week ending September 2nd reported declining levels of delayed, on hold and abandoned projects. All three measures of project stress remain near or below comparable levels of the last two years. Historically the third quarter marks the seasonal apex in on hold and abandoned project levels. Additionally, this year’s financial markets dynamics continue to generate headwinds for construction developers and owners as banks continue to employ austere lending practices. For these reasons September’s results should be followed particularly closely.
This week’s data include revisions to recent historical results. Despite these adjustments, the last few weeks of results are only slightly above the relatively low levels of 2021 and 2020.
On hold project levels declined for a second week. In the year-to-date period the level of on hold projects has been unexpectedly tepid, especially given the year’s financial markets challenges.
The behavior of this year’s level of abandoned projects has so far been highly unusual. This year has seen an out of trend spike in early year projects which was then followed mid-year by a series of multi-year low readings.
The Project Stress Index (PSI) monitors the level of U.S. construction projects, excluding single family residential, that have experienced a bid date delay, have been placed on hold, or have been abandoned over the last 30 days. Each component has been indexed against the average of their weekly values recorded during 2021. The independent tracking of each status type gives unique insights into the timing, direction, and amplitude of market changes.
Additional information about the PSI, including detailed data about the individual readings for delayed, on hold, and abandoned projects can be found here.