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Is Industrial Spending About to Rebound After a Difficult Period of Normalization? Blog Feature

By: Michael Guckes, Chief Economist on August 8, 2024

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Is Industrial Spending About to Rebound After a Difficult Period of Normalization?

 

Industrial construction spending is composed of three sub-categories: Manufacturing, Warehouses, and Industrial and School Laboratories.

Of these three, Manufacturing spending over the last two decades has constituted nearly 63% of the category’s total value, followed by Warehouses at 31% and laboratories making up the rest. In a delayed response to the COVID pandemic, manufacturing starts spending exploded starting in the second half of 2021 and climaxed in the first half of 2022.

Industrial starts spending, which totaled a record-breaking $81 billion in 2019, nearly doubled by 2022, with annual spending that year cresting above $150 billion. From this point onward, monthly spending began slowly and unevenly trending lower. During 2023, total spending remained exceptionally strong by historic standards at $130 billion, largely due to megaprojects in the first and fourth quarters of the year.

Industrial Starts july 2024

However, as the pace of spending continued to slow through 2024 year-on-year and year-to-date results began to reflect the shadow left behind by the former boom period. In the first-half 2024 industrial starts totaled $37.8B, down 37% and 55% from the same periods in 2023 and 2022 respectively.

Despite these difficult comparisons, industrial spending actually remains above its long-run trend. Average monthly starts spending over the past 12 months of $9.02B is 34% above the average level in the 12 months ending December 2019. Even when accounting for inflation, which pushed construction costs higher by 35% over this period, what we see is that today’s industrial construction spending is still comparable in real terms to the record levels of 2019. This context should help reassure those who have been discouraged by the negative spending figures of the recent past.

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About ConstructConnect

Construction Starts Here™ at ConstructConnect, where our mission is to help the construction industry start every project on a solid foundation. A leading provider of software solutions for the preconstruction industry, ConstructConnect empowers commercial construction firms to streamline their workflows and maximize productivity. ConstructConnect operates as a business unit of Roper Technologies (Nasdaq: ROP), a constituent of the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Fortune 1000.

 

About Michael Guckes, Chief Economist

Michael Guckes is regularly featured as an economics thought leader in national media, including USA Today, Construction Dive, and Marketplace from APM. He started in construction economics as a leading economist for the Ohio Department of Transportation. He then transitioned to manufacturing economics, where he served five years as the chief economist for Gardner Business Media. He covered all forms of manufacturing, from traditional metalworking to advanced composites fabrication. In 2022, Michael joined ConstructConnect's economics team, shifting his focus to the commercial construction market. He received his bachelor’s degree in economics and political science from Kenyon College and his MBA from the Ohio State University.